The Villans Defy All Gravity Again as Victorious Streak Continues at Chelsea

This surely should not go on. It makes no sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations

The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's Premier League clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, took the lead, and could have added several more. But, Chelsea are frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling habit of snatching wins on the road from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post after his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might believe some fortune was overdue, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal had a significant element of luck. At the moment, though, Lady Luck seems to be favoring Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Implausible Run

The last nine of these 11 straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have kept a shutout in just one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern should not, but pundits have been saying that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their results will eventually align with their displays or if their level of play can rise to justify the points haul.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everybody's been stating that for weeks and Villa continue winning.

A Defining Trait: Belief

Coming from behind is not just a trait of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has gained more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; Eighteen of those were secured this term, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a profound self-belief that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at changing games through his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins came on for Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement behind the defensive line caused problems. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, strengthening the midfield and providing the width they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had 10 shots to Villa's zero before the changes; afterwards, Villa created 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were commanding and could easily have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca struggled to react as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is more proficient at implementing a game plan with preparation time than making adjustments on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him working the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the entire team playing brilliantly, but enough individuals within it delivering to secure the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they must be viewed as in the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant test of that status. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have since put together their own sequence of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their title credentials.