Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
